Category: Uncategorized
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Say Hello to the Four Horsemen – Part 4
These four essays are about systematic risk in the U.S. in 2026. I cover the following four risk categories: This fourth essay is on Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. The Fourth Horseman – Donald Trump and MAGA Donald Trump is what arson investigators would call an accelerant. Each of the risks discussed in Parts…
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Say Hello to the Four Horsemen – Part 3
These four essays are about systematic risk in the U.S. in 2026. I cover the following four risk categories: This third essay is on climate change. The Third Horseman – Climate Change This section will be very short, not because it’s not the most serious threat facing humanity, but because you already know enough about…
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Say Hello to the Four Horsemen – Part 2
These four essays are about systematic risk in the U.S. in 2026. I cover the following four risk categories: This second essay is on artificial intelligence (AI). The Second Horseman – Artificial Intelligence (AI) In her book Empire of AI, author Karen Hao takes a deep dive into the AI industry by profiling one of…
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Say Hello to the Four Horsemen – Part 1
In my job as a business analyst, I measure two types of risk, what economists call unsystematic and systematic risk. Unsystematic risk is the basket of threats that one business or one geographical region faces (e.g. a local restaurant’s competition, hurricanes in Miami, an indispensable key manager in a company retiring, etc.). Conversely, systematic risk…
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Project 2025: America’s Appointment in Samarra
John J. Barton You have probably heard the term “Project 2025” (“The Project”) in recent weeks, maybe with some vague understanding that it embodies a radical right agenda which will accompany a Trump victory in November. You would be right that it is a radical right agenda; there is some confusion though about if, or…
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Will the 2026 Sunset of the Estate Tax Exemption Affect You?
John J. Barton, ASA, CPA The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA, or more widely known as the “Trump Tax Reform”) had several benefits for wealthy Americans, one of which was the significant increase in the lifetime individual estate tax exemption from $5.6 million to $11.2 million (for married couples, the joint exemption…
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You Gotta Know When it’s Time to Go
American voters will not elect Joe Biden on November 5th. That’s an important point to remember, so I will restate it. American voters will not elect Joe Biden on November 5th. After the first debate on June 27th, Joe Biden has two choices: 1) step aside and release his delegates; or 2) watch Donald Trump’s…
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Biden or Trump?
Biden will be a Mediocre President. Trump will be a Catastrophe. Introduction It’s decision time again. Chances are you made your choice long ago since both presidential candidates are well-known to the American public. They say that the small sliver of still-undecideds could very well choose the next President; the country is that evenly divided.…
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What is Wrong With the Accepted Wisdom on Long-term Investing?
When I went to business school over 40 years ago, I was taught the same thing about personal investing that B-school students learned before me and the same thing they’ve learned since. It’s the same thing that many wealth advisors tell their young clients: if you invest in large-cap corporate stocks (say, an S&P 500…
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On Democracy
Democracy: Dead? Dying? Or Just Dormant? If he does not get incarcerated beforehand, Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination for President in the 2024 election. In fact, he might well win the GOP nomination even if he is incarcerated. Then, on November 5, 2024, he has a very good chance of winning the Presidency.…
The D'Town Essays 