Biden will be a Mediocre President. Trump will be a Catastrophe.

Introduction

It’s decision time again. Chances are you made your choice long ago since both presidential candidates are well-known to the American public. They say that the small sliver of still-undecideds could very well choose the next President; the country is that evenly divided. If the undecided voter is indeed the swing voter, then it is important that these people access the facts rather than the fictions in today’s political discourse.

Every election in U.S. history has been beset with lies and mud-slinging. It’s how America does its politics. The omnipresence of disinformation, which has been exacerbated by social media, places an enormous burden on the voter to research the facts. There has never been a time in U.S. history when so much has been asked of American voters. This essay is a deep-dive into both Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s profiles which hopefully will help with the research. We will try to dispel the myths, lies, and demagoguery that cloud the voters’ ability to choose.

First, a full disclosure. As the title of this essay suggests, I am voting for Joe Biden. I believe I came to my decision based on a dispassionate evaluation of facts. I don’t ask you to agree with the analyses or conclusions that follow. I just ask you to consider the research below with the same objectivity that I conducted my analysis. Then combine this essay with other research efforts to make your own decision.

Although I will vote for Biden, I am not a fan of his. There are many reasons. Over the past three years he’s been bold when he should have been timid (the Afghanistan withdrawal, the 2021 $1.9 trillion stimulus), and he’s been timid when he should have been bold (holding back sophisticated weapons systems from Ukraine; his inability to do anything about the bombing of civilians in Gaza; lacking any kind of immigration policy). Also, while I’m sure there are some healthy 80-something politicians out there, the assumption that American voters will elect an 81-year-old man to the presidency is hubris. Still, Biden has been a passable President and he has had some successes (infrastructure, unemployment rate, veterans’ affairs, etc.).  When historians rank Joe Biden’s administration, I suspect he will come in somewhere around the middle of the pack.

My conclusion on Donald Trump is that a second term will be a catastrophe. The man’s mental pathologies are easily observed by watching any one of his public appearances. He is a fundamentally dishonest man. Even when lying or when causing pain in others serves no personal purpose, he appears to do it anyway as a matter of preference. He is, in short, a narcissistic sociopath. When the historians evaluate all U.S. Presidents, I believe Donald Trump will be ranked last, with an understanding that he had little competition for the bottom spot.”

Polls show that 70.0% of the country believes that neither man will be a good President. Joe Biden will at least, as they say, keep the trains running, if not necessarily on time. Donald Trump, at the very least, will test every constitutional guardrail in our system and leave the country is a profoundly debilitated state. At most, he will end the Republic. Trump could realistically be the last freely-elected U.S. President in history.

A Biden Second Term

In addition to his awful public presence, Biden gets his lowest marks on voters’ two top issues according to polls: 1) the economy; and 2) immigration. The man can’t do anything about his age or speaking ability. What we see is the same or better than what we’re going to get on that front. His poor polling on the economy and immigration were warranted over his first two years. Although the polls have remained the same through the present, the voters’ concerns on these two issues are less warranted in 2024 than in 2022.

Biden on the Economy

Republican talking heads have been told to scream “OUT OF CONTROL INFLATION!” every time they hear the name Joe Biden. Just this morning, I heard Bryan Lanza, former Trump Communications Director say, “…we have inflation wiping out the middle class, wiping out savings, wiping out people’s credit.” Wow. That’s some claim. The Republicans are hitting on this issue because no matter what the facts are about inflation, and no matter how much inflation declines over the next four months, the claim works. Joe Biden has been stuck with the inflation bugaboo, and by extension, he is not trusted to handle the U.S. economy.  While this charge had some merit in 2021-22, it is completely scurrilous today. So why does the charge stick? It sticks because most people don’t know what causes inflation, how inflation is measured, or even what the inflation rates are at any given point in time. What people do think though, at all times, under all presidents, is that they pay more for goods and services than what they’re worth and that they should be in a better financial position than they’re in.

Consider the following facts:

• The average rate of inflation during the 100 years between 1924 and 2024 was 3.30%. The inflation rate as of May 31, 2024 is 3.17%.  As of the summer of 2024, inflation is not out of control. Or even a little bit out of control. Inflation could reignite for lots of reasons, but as of June, 2024, the claim that it is out of control is factually incorrect.

• At 9.1%, inflation was out of control back in June of 2022, and Joe Biden was responsible for part of that happening. But the problems that caused inflation to reach those levels are mostly behind us.

• The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has a target optimum inflation rate of 2.0%; the tools that the Fed uses to manage inflation only partially work with some of the factors which cause inflation and are useless against other factors that cause inflation. Presidents, by and large, do not control what the Fed does anyway. Also, not all economists agree that 2.0% inflation should be a target rate all the time.

Let’s talk about inflation for a little while because it’s the #1 concern among American voters. Certainly, the Republican playbook is nothing more than demagoguery.

 Inflation over the past eight years is shown below.

Between 1980 and 2020, average inflation was 2.96%. Most American adults alive today have no recollection of the years 1968 to 1980 when inflation ranged between 6.0% and 15.0% per year.  The low inflation that we enjoyed between 1980 and 2020 was caused mostly by globalization. Although we like to complain about how all the good U.S. manufacturing jobs were shipped overseas by unscrupulous corporate CEOs, this is precisely what allowed our low inflation rates.  The U.S. auto worker who was getting paid $45.00/hour plus full health benefits plus a defined pension plan was replaced by a Mexican or Chinese auto worker who was getting paid $5.00 per hour with no benefits. That’s why you could buy a Toyota Corolla in 2015 for only a little bit more than what you paid in 1985.

So what happened in 2021 that caused inflation to skyrocket? The answer is COVID and all its accompanying evils. Before we get to that, a short primer on inflation is necessary.

Inflation is measured in many different ways with many different metrics. The two most common are total inflation and core inflation. Total inflation is measured as the increase in price for all goods and services (measured as a representative selection of common goods and services in the economy) in one time period divided by a prior time period, minus one. So if a dozen eggs cost $2.10 on December 31, 2023, and had cost $1.90 in December 31, 2022, then the annual inflation rate for eggs was 10.5% (2.1/1.9 -1).

Core inflation is the same as total inflation except certain volatile goods such as food and energy are removed from the calculation. You might ask a very good question. Why would we care about core inflation when the two things we buy the most – food and energy – are excluded?  The answer to that is that food and energy prices are driven by a wide array of factors, many of which are supply-side issues (see below). If we include these factors in our inflationary readings, we might see skewed results which lead us to make flawed conclusions about the direction of the economy. So, we look at both, and try to explain why the two metrics are moving in the same or different directions.

Inflation is caused by two distinct drivers, demand-side factors and supply-side factors.  Demand-side inflation happens when there’s too much money in consumers’ hands. When more consumers are willing to buy goods without exercising any discretion about the prices they pay, prices tend to increase. If you are a car dealer selling Ford F-150s and you know you’ll have 1,000 customers this year willing to pay almost anything for a Ford F-150, you’re going to raise your prices. Demand-side inflation is caused by an overheated economy where wages increase because companies have to pay for additional workers to produce more goods that those wages are able to purchase. It’s an upward spiral that feeds on itself.

Supply-side inflation is caused by a shortage of goods. When the same number of people compete to purchase a smaller supply of a product, the seller raises the price. The problem with supply-side inflation is that it is difficult to predict and is usually caused by non-economic factors.  A flood or drought can cause crop yields to drop which increases the price of the crops that make it to market. Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine which is one of the world’s main suppliers of grain. The war destroyed much of Ukraine’s grain processing infrastructure. Grain prices in Africa soared as a result.

The best recent example of supply-side inflation was the COVID pandemic. It was a perfect supply-side storm. Entire economies closed down. Manufacturers closed their plants. Ports closed. Truckers stopped driving. For months, consumers could not find toilet paper, paper towels, ground beef, etc. So when they did find some, they were willing to pay 2x, 5x, or 10x the pre-pandemic price. The higher bars in the middle of the graph above for the years 2021 through 2023 are a prime example of supply-side inflation.

Here’s the thing about supply-side inflation. U.S. Presidents and the Fed are nearly helpless against its effects. Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, can raise interest rates to 50.0% and it won’t make the coronavirus disappear and it won’t make flooded crops magically grow. The initial inflation in the above graph had nothing to do with either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. It was caused by a virus.

Having said that, Joe Biden is partially at fault for the top inflation reading in June of 2022. When he first became President, Biden pushed through a big thank-you gift to the American voters in the form of The American Rescue Plan Act, which distributed $1.9 trillion to the American public. The stated intention of the Act was to continue to bail out American workers and corporations who were still ailing from the pandemic. The fact of the matter was that by March 2021 a vaccine had been created which was 95% effective, was mass produced, and well on its way to solving the pandemic problem. The economy was not out of the woods, but what it did not need was a huge infusion of untargeted money which mostly went to individuals and companies that had already recovered from whatever pain they experienced during the pandemic.

Biden poured demand-side accelerant all over a supply-side inflation fire which had just begun to smolder.  He reignited inflation which took another two years, and a 5.5% Fed rate hike to cool down. Big mistake Joe. Very big mistake. If the election were held in late 2022, the “OUT OF CONTROL INFLATION” screams  would be at least partially deserved.

But they’re not deserved in 2024.

Inflation has declined from its June 2022 peak of 9.10% to its current level of 3.17%. It will be difficult to reach the 2.0% target rate because of the government’s high debt load ($34 trillion) as well as international factors which any President would be hard-pressed to change. The end of globalization is both a direct and indirect effect of international relations, which are becoming increasingly precarious.

Take China, for example. Over the past 20 years China has maintained an absurdly high economic growth rate through government investment in its manufacturing industries. With low domestic demand, China has far more production capacity than it can sell at home. So it must export all the surplus goods, including electric cars, green energy products (solar panels, etc.), consumer electronics, and more. China’s strategy is to dump these products on western markets at very low prices, drive competing products out of the market, and then slowly raise prices. Western governments, including both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, have placed tariffs on Chinese goods to combat this strategy and protect American and other western producers.

Globalization is disappearing for other reasons as well. Countries feel the need to repatriate industries lest bad actors one day hold those industries hostage. Taiwan is a perfect example. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) produces the most advanced computer chips in the world. No other company on earth can compete with their technology. It is likely that China will invade Taiwan sometime before the end of Xi Jinping’s current term which ends in 2027. It is conceivable that once Xi controls TSMC, those most advanced chips will either not be sold to the U.S. or would be sold under restricted circumstances. To avoid this, the U.S. government is investing billions to create its own version of TSMC, as are several other developed nations.

The result of all this international complexity is higher prices, whether it comes in the form of protectionist policies and tariffs, or the onshoring of industries that maybe should remain in countries with cheaper production abilities. Think of it this way. That $5.00/hour Mexican worker is going to lose his job to the American $45.00/hour worker. It’s globalization in reverse.

Other factors will increase supply-side inflation. The biggest is climate change. With a superheated climate and new weather patterns, changes in habitat and arable land will make many products unavailable in the future, or available in lower quantities that will be sold at higher prices.

We may not see low inflation rates like the past 40 years again in our lifetimes. The most likely reasons for this will have little to do with either man running for President or their successors. Still, Biden carries the blame for inflation and a “disastrous economy,” which, when compared to Donald Trump’s economic bona fides, is downright comedic. 

The argument is not that you are not being hurt by higher prices, especially for groceries and gasoline. The argument is that as a voter it is incumbent on you to understand why prices went up, why they are currently declining, and who, if anyone, bears responsibility for the resultant economic harm. With that understanding, you will be able to make better decisions at the ballot box.

In the above graph, the peak of the blue line (9.1% in the United States in June, 2022) was partially the fault of Joe Biden’s 2021 economic stimulus, as was discussed. But, if you’re going to blame Biden for that, then don’t you at least need to either give him credit for the 66.0% drop in inflation since then, or, alternatively, understand what caused the decline?  Also, don’t you wonder why the European Union experienced a similar inflation curve, albeit about nine months later? Biden has nothing to do with the European Union, so why did they experience an almost identical inflation curve? The one thing you cannot do is parrot GOP talking points about “Biden’s inflation” without understanding what you’re talking about.

Regarding the larger economy, consider the following macroeconomic variables:

There is nothing in the above data that suggests that the U.S. economy is failing. In fact, the United States outperformed most major developed economies in the world during 2023. If you believe that Biden has mismanaged the economy, what data are you basing your opinion on? Yes, you are paying more for groceries and rent than you paid in 2019. But try moving to the UK or Germany where the economies are in worse shape.  

As a result of the GOP’s demagoguery, Biden is portrayed as a disaster on the economy, which, as the the talking heads love to say, continues to decline. What you think of Biden’s economic management skills is not the point.  The point is that the economy is not sinking. The standard definition of a recession is two successive periods of decline in gross domestic product (GDP). The graph above shows higher periodic GDP growth under Biden than under Trump. Unemployment is also lower under Biden.

Biden’s dilemma is that once the common man becomes convinced that prices are too high, it takes a long period of low prices to shake loose that perspective. Gas prices, for reasons that have little to do with Biden, are actually declining. Food prices are declining, and, when inflation is measured by what people are buying rather than by what stores are charging, are declining further. By and large, retailers are realizing that the period where they can gouge consumers is over, forcing them to moderate prices.

It is doubtful that any of this will help Joe Biden by November, 2024. He’s perceived as a bad economic manager; the truth and the facts are irrelevant. You voter, should understand though that the next time you scream “BIDEN’S OUT OF CONTROL INFLATION!” you are making a fool of yourself, unless, of course, you are in a room full of like-minded fools.

Biden on Immigration

It is true that Biden’s immigration record is dismal. But the truth lies somewhere between his record and the GOP talking points. The GOP screams that criminals and rapists are pouring over the southern border by the millions and Joe Biden is doing nothing about it. Similar to inflation, the common U.S. citizen knows little about immigration, how it affects the U.S. economy, and what can be done about it.  First, some facts:

Asylum and immigration are different legal systems. Asylum laws were originally designed to provide foreigners who were persecuted or in mortal danger in their home countries to seek residency in the U.S. The idea was to grant at-risk people fast admission into the country, then figure out how they can navigate the immigration system. Immigration laws are the broader system under which anyone, for any reason, can seek admission to the U.S. for work, permanent residency, or citizenship. Neither set of laws has been updated in decades. It is the asylum system that is causing the current chaos at the southern border.

It is the legislature’s job to fix the immigration and asylum laws in the United States. It is not the President’s responsibility; the President has the ability to introduce legislation to Congress, and he has the ability to veto legislation, which can then be overridden. But Joe Biden cannot edit, delete, or rewrite the existent laws on immigration and asylum. He must through, obey existent laws until Congress changes them. Biden does carry some responsibility for a lack of leadership and a lack of proposed legislation, but the main blame here must go to Congress. Biden suffers from the fact that it is much easier to blame one President than it is to blame 535 members of Congress.

Note that the number of undocumented residents in the U.S. can change depending on who is doing the counting and what their motives are; it is a fungible number. The number has ranged between 10.0 and 12.0 million people, though the numbers have increased during the Biden Administration. The statistic that is far worse for the Biden Administration is border encounters by U.S. authorities during the past three years (after a ten-year period of relative calm). The encounters statistic suggests that there are far more people who get through since the government can only count the migrants who were caught. The statistics support the contention that the southern border is in chaos.

To a large extent, these border encounters are people who are seeking admission under U.S. asylum laws. Some have no case, some a very good case. The problem is that when there are 5,000 of them every day, there is no way to afford them due process.

The Biden Administration, to its discredit, never developed a coherent border policy. He initially put his Vice President, Kamala Harris in charge of the border, probably because he knows immigration is close to becoming a “third rail” in American politics. Politicians who make an effort to address the problem usually get stung, so he preferred to let his Vice President assume the political risk. Harris, probably recognizing the liability, took a couple years to even visit the border. Biden’s negligence has resulted in the chaos in Texas, Arizona, California, and New Mexico which gets near nightly coverage on the evening news.

It didn’t have to be this way and the reason there is still chaos has every bit as much to do with the Republicans as it has to do with Joe Biden. First, a border deal negotiated by Senator James Lankford  which was a capitulation by the Democrats to conservative demands was shot down in the U.S. Senate in February, 2024 – by the Republicans! It was shot down because it would have deprived the GOP of their most cherished avenue of demagoguery against Biden – “OUT OF CONTROL BORDER CHAOS!” For that reason alone, the Republican Party has no credibility on the immigration controversy (in addition to the fact that when they controlled the Presidency, Senate, and House during the Trump Administration, they could not even get their own deal done when there was no opposition.).

Biden’s coming-to-Jesus moment on immigration in 2024 is entirely disingenuous. The only reason he is paying attention to it is that it is a top issue cited by voters in the coming election. In June, 2024 he initiated an executive order to close the border if the 7-day average of illegal crossings rises above 2,500 people. The order is similar to Trump’s attempt to shut Muslims out of the U.S. early in his presidency. It is a naked political attempt to assuage U.S. voters panicked over immigration.

Having said all this, who is at fault for the asylum chaos at the border? The answer is the Federal Government – the President, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Every time one corner of the government develops a viable plan to address asylum and immigration, another corner of the government sabotages the plan because it does not suit their political needs. In other words, if you want to deprive Joe Biden your vote because of his border non-policies, then you shouldn’t vote for anyone in the Federal Government. Collectively, they have failed to govern in one of the most basic areas of government.

The Truth About Immigration

The fact is, while we don’t need all the people who are crossing the Rio Grande, we certainly do need most of them.  We need them to come into the U.S. in a legal and orderly fashion, get jobs (which we have in abundance), pay taxes, rent apartments, and buy refrigerators. This is where the typical U.S. voter disconnects from reality. This is where voters make decisions based on their delusions, the latent racist voices in their heads, or to what they hear on FOX and Friends. Consider the following facts.

In 1950, the U.S. birth rate was 24.27 per 1,000 people; by 2024, that statistic had been cut in half, to 12.0 births per 1,000 people. Births per woman were 3.15 in 1950; that dropped to 1.79 births per woman in 2024. The current birth rate in the United States is below replacement rate, which is 2.1 births per woman for developed countries. In other words, without immigration, the U.S. population will steadily decline.

A declining population is a bad thing for all sorts of reasons.

• Economies grow through population growth and productivity growth. With fewer people, we’ll get lower growth rates, and/or a declining economy.

• Smaller successive generations supporting larger older generations spells doom for both. Do you plan on getting Social Security and Medicare in your old age? Then you better start having more babies or being a lot more welcoming to immigrants.

• The same problem is happening in the eastern hemisphere. Asian countries, like China, Japan, and South Korea all have much lower birth rates than the U.S. All three of these countries either ban immigration or allow it under extremely restricted circumstances. Economists cite population decline as one of the most serious social and political threats to these countries. These are called inverse pyramid economies. You don’t want to live in an inverse pyramid economy.

So why are Americans so worried about immigration?  There’s one valid reason and several invalid reasons. The only valid reason is that the Federal Government – including the Biden Administration – has failed miserably to manage it. The southern border is an easily manageable problem. It will take resources and agreement between the parties, but these goals are elusive to the current polarized legislature. The government can limit asylum to certain points of entry and devote significant resources to handling the number of asylum cases at those points of entry.  Anyone who seeks asylum at any other point at the border (or crosses illegally for any reason) gets detained and sent back as a matter of law.

The main invalid reason is this. Racism is alive and well in the minds of many American voters who are easily baited by gaslighting opportunists like Donald Trump. Trump never misses an opportunity to repeat the message that immigrants are rapists and criminals when the truth is that people coming over the southern border commit crimes at a lower rate than U.S. citizens. For more information on Trump’s racist proclivities see the story about the Central Park 5 (https://time.com/5597843/central-park-five-trump-history/) as well as his history of leasing NYC apartments (https://www.npr.org/2016/09/29/495955920/donald-trump-plagued-by-decades-old-housing-discrimination-case).

Another invalid reason which is almost always cited by the GOP is that immigrants are taking your jobs and bankrupting the American healthcare system. None of this is true.

There were 8.1 million unfilled jobs in the U.S. as of April, 2024.  That is down from 10 million last year, but still well above historical norms. There are 1.25 job openings for every person looking for work. There are several reasons for this, but one is that we have denied legal immigration status to so many people. Understand that these open jobs are not for doctors, lawyers, and engineers. The openings are in labor, retail, agriculture, trucking, etc. These are jobs normally taken by first-generation immigrants. They get a job, pay taxes, raise children, buy consumer goods, and earn citizenship. We have cut off our economy from this crucial lifeline.

In addition to the racism discussed above, there is a political reason. Republicans believe, rightly or wrongly, that the mostly Hispanics coming over the southern border will one day register as Democrats when they become eligible to vote. They would rather deal with the economic decline, which can easily be blamed on the other party, than deal with a smaller political constituency.

Biden Summary

Joe Biden is a well-intentioned man who suffers politically from his age and a lifelong inability to speak in public. His life expectancy on January 20, 2025 will be 7 years, long enough to survive his term. But the American public knows those seven years will be far from his best years. They also know next to nothing about his Vice President, Kamala Harris, who stands a better chance of becoming President than any Vice President since Harry Truman. On top of all that, Biden is no stranger to making miscalculations. He is also not afraid to do the politically expedient thing rather than the right thing.

If I had to grade his first term, I’d say he gets a C+.

A Second Trump Term

When most people think about Trump’s first term, they think about his narcissism and the bizarre behavior enabled by his egomania. We don’t need to recite Trump’s many malignities here (for a review of Trump’s greatest hits, see another D’town essay at https://barton.buzz/2022/08/18/on-democracy/)

Donald Trump is famously self-immersed and transactional. He has little interest in governing unless a particular act of governance involves something in it for him personally. It may be a financial interest. It may satisfy his racist urges. Or he may see an act of governance as helping his image with his base voters. We can’t compare Biden to Trump because Biden is a politician who at least tries to govern, while Trump is not a politician; he’s not in the White House to govern. He wants the job because it satisfies his pathological and insatiable need for attention and provides him the power to grow his personal wealth.

To demonstrate, consider some of the “accomplishments” of Trump’s first term.

• The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act – Trump was not involved in the creation or vetting of this legislation. He signed it because the GOP told him it would benefit the wealthiest Americans (the top 1.0% of Americans received an average tax cut of $61,000) and industry (corporate taxes were lowered from 35% to 21%, which was a windfall for the top half of U.S. citizens who own public stocks). The middle and lower classes got virtually nothing out of this legislation other than an additional $1.0 to $2.0 trillion added on to the national deficit. The tax cut was completely unnecessary since it was enacted during a period of economic expansion. A basic tenet of taxation is that you increase tax rates during expansionary periods and lower them during recessions. This legislation was nothing more than a money grab by the upper class.

• Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords – Self-explanatory. Donald Trump rejects the reality of climate change and the impending catastrophe that the world will face over the next 50 years. Maybe a more likely explanation is that Trump accepts the science of climate change but doesn’t care about it since it won’t affect him personally. The climate’s effect on his children and grandchildren evidently is not important to him.

• Withdrawal from the JCPOA – He pulled out of the agreement with Iran to postpone their pursuit of nuclear weapons. Although the deal likely would only have postponed Iran’s pursuit by 10-15 years, his withdrawal has been a disaster. Iran right now has enough weapons-grade enriched uranium for three nuclear bombs which can be assembled within six weeks. Were that to happen today, there is no doubt that Donald Trump would excoriate Joe Biden for being weak on Muslims.

• Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – The TPP was an economic treaty between Japan, Mexico, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Vietnam, Peru, Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei that would have contributed significantly to economic growth in the U.S. Perhaps more importantly, it would have cemented the United States, rather than China, as the dominant economic player in the Pacific region. Trump understood little about what the TPP would do. He pulled out because it was a treaty associated entirely with Barack Obama, which made it toxic to the Trump brand. His rejection of the TPP accompanied Trump’s attempt to end Obamacare, which was unsuccessful.

• Attempts to dismantle the Federal Government – There are too many things to cite here. Overall, Trump’s policy was to remove protections from American citizens and repeal as many Federal regulations as possible across all walks of American life (involving food, pharmaceuticals, environmental threats, etc.) He wanted to end Federal Regulations especially if they were costly to industry. The effect on the Departments of Education [remember Betsy DeVos?], Commerce [remember Wilbur Ross?], the Interior [remember Ryan Zinke?], Health & Human Services [remember Tom Price?], Agriculture [Sonny Perdue?], etc. were profound. If you think the Federal Government is protecting you in any area of your current life, you better check. Unless restored by Joe Biden, many of those protections are long gone.

• Impeded Legal Immigrants – Through Stephen Miller, possibly the most xenophobic person to serve in the Federal Government since the pre-Civil War Supreme Court, Donald Trump tried to stop immigration at the southern border completely. The insanity reached a peak when little children were separated from their parents and put into cages; 1,400 of these kids are still in Federal custody, still separated from their parents. While efforts to control asylum were necessary, attempts to stop legal immigration are economically self-defeating, and with some of Trump’s policies, overtly immoral.

• The appointments of Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett – Throughout history, SCOTUS has almost always been either left-leaning or right-leaning. But we’d have to go back to at least the 1930s or to the 1850s to see a Court as ideological skewed as the current one. There are three liberals, one conservative, three ultra-conservatives, and two whose views are so far to the right it would be an understatement to label them as ultra-conservative. One of those two never had the credentials or legal scholarship to be appointed in the first place. Donald Trump appointed the three ultra-conservatives. Whoever serves as the next President could easily get the chance to appoint one if not two Justices.

The 2024 Trump Political Platform

We know little about Trump’s agenda for a second term because he rarely makes policy statements while campaigning. Most of his speeches are about his grievances and revenge, which he can talk about for hours. The few policy statements that he has let slip are so bizarre and untenable that aides have had to downplay them.

For example, Trump is on record saying he would consider withdrawing from NATO and he has stated that he is open to cuts in Social Security and Medicare. If America withdrew from NATO, the world would begin a new era almost overnight. We might expect a Russian invasion of the Baltic States to accompany a triumph in Ukraine. A Russian invasion of the rest of eastern Europe would only be limited by Russia’s ability to manufacture military kit. Western Europe would possibly fail in its Article 5 obligations to Eastern Europe if America were to withdraw from the alliance. Putin could recreate the Soviet Union; he has stated numerous times that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the biggest disaster of the 20^th century.

Also, say good-bye to Taiwan, and possibly the Philippines. Do not expect Donald Trump to defend Taiwan. What would be in it for him? Trump’s isolationist tendencies and his infantile view of world affairs would set the U.S. back to its pre-World War II position among nations.

On the economy, Trump has suggested placing a minimum 60% tariff on all Chinese goods. He also suggested that the U.S. Federal personal and corporate income tax system be abolished and replaced with tariffs on all imports.  These suggestions are the economic equivalent of telling people to drink bleach to cure COVID-19. When coupled with a more stringent clampdown on immigration, Trump’s total-tariff idea would send inflation figures well beyond what the United States experienced in the 1970s. 

Economist Lawrence Summers, former Treasury Secretary and former President of Harvard University said that Trump’s tariff proposal is “the worst macroeconomic policy proposal in U.S. history.” Summers is an equal opportunity critic. When Biden proposed his $1.9 trillion stimulus in the Spring of 2021, Summers said it would lead to damaging inflation. He was right.

Tariffs are a very dangerous economic tool. As discussed above, they may sometimes be warranted to protect against another country’s dumping goods on the U.S. market to gain market share. Many Americans believe – because Donald Trump constantly tells them – that foreign governments pay tariffs to the American government when imposed. That is not even a little bit true. When the American government imposes tariffs, they raise the price of imported goods (by the amount of the tariff) which are bought by American consumers – the American consumer pays the tariff, every time, all the time. It is the Trump tariffs from his first administration, which were continued by Biden, that contribute mightily to the fact that the U.S. will probably be hard-pressed to reach its 2.0% inflation target.

Consider some history here. In 1930, the Federal Government enacted the Smoot-Hawley tariffs. Economic historians agree that these tariffs were the spark that turned the 1929 stock market crash into the Great Depression, which lasted throughout the 1930s. It is estimated that the Smoot-Hawley tariffs cost about six-tenths of 1.0% of gross domestic product. Economists today calculate that Trump’s proposed tax/tariff policy would cost six times what the Smoot-Hawley tariffs cost.

But who knows if Trump even came up with these nutty ideas. It could be the case that they’re the ideas of Peter Navarro, Trump’s old economic advisor, live from his prison cell. Much of an extended list of Trump’s accomplishments as President were not ideas or policies of his own. They were a mix of haphazard initiatives brought to his desk by ultra-conservative special interest groups. He signed on to the above list, and much more, because each initiative would somehow benefit him personally or satisfy one of his racial or financial proclivities.

If I had to grade Trump, it would be an F, but only because there’s no such thing as an F-.

Conclusion

I agree with most of America that a second Joe Biden term would be difficult to watch. The more he and his aides try to convince us that he’s young and vigorous, the more pathetic he becomes. It would be like spending the next four years listening to the B-side of a Karen Carpenter AM radio release.

Trump on the other hand combines ineptitude, mental illness, and the seven deadly sins into a perfect storm of systematic risk. He would be like spending the next four years listening to Yoko Ono shrieking into your ear.

If you are a Trump supporter, and none of the above makes you second guess your choice, consider my nightmare scenario described below. I sincerely believe that if Donald Trump is elected, and there still is a United States in 2028, there is a better than 50% chance that some version of the events below will occur:

It is September 30, 2028. Donald Trump is nearing the end of his second and final term as President. The presidential election is five weeks away on November 6, 2028. The Republican Party has nominated Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas, as the Republican nominee. The Democrats have nominated J.B. Pritzker, Governor of Illinois. For the prior four years, the Republican Party has dominated the federal government with a GOP President, a GOP-controlled Senate for all four years, and a GOP House for the prior two years.

The GOP has become deeply unpopular with the American public. The Party is way behind in the Presidential, Senate, and House polling. Pritzker leads Abbott by 15 points, and the Democrats are projected to easily retake the entire Legislature.  Sensing that voters are out for revenge, Governor Abbott states that as President he would not pardon Donald Trump if Trump got convicted in later trials. Governor Pritzker’s platform calls for a Justice Department that will revive the federal cases against Donald Trump. Prosecutor Jack Smith is on record as saying he will gladly re-assume the lead role in both the Washington D.C. and Florida prosecutions against Trump.

President Donald Trump has been watching this scenario unfold.  Over the prior four years he has been successful at instilling loyalists at all levels of the military, from the Secretary of Defense, to the general/admiral officer level, all the way down to lieutenant level. Promotions in all the service areas (army, navy, marine, air force, coast guard) have required not just a statement of personal loyalty to Donald Trump, but a record of command behavior which demonstrates such loyalty. In short, Donald Trump has spent his second term ensuring that he personally controls every facet of the entire U.S. military complex.

Trump realizes that it’s almost a certainty that he will be convicted in at least one of the two federal cases against him once they are revived after his term ends. In addition, he will likely be convicted in the Georgia election fraud case which had been paused by the Supreme Court. Also, Arizona and Michigan brought charges against Trump during his second administration which mirror the Georgia case. He understands that by age 83 he will probably be incarcerated in federal prison, with at least one state prison term to follow. It is unlikely he will ever be a free man again in his lifetime. As he ponders his options, his two top aides, Steve Bannon and Steven Miller (“the Steves”) come into the oval office. They are equally nervous about a Justice Department controlled by Democrats and have a novel idea. Their plan involved the following steps:

1. The President should schedule a speech to the nation and request coverage from all media outlets. In this speech, he will announce that a federal investigation into state election processes has uncovered massive fraud in most states. The investigation revealed multiple rigged systems which exclusively favor Democratic candidates. Since it is too late to take corrective action, and in the interest of free and fair elections and in the interests of the Constitution, the November 6, 2028 election will be suspended until further notice.

• Since no such investigation actually occurred, and they have no documentation of such fraud, there will be outrage and multiple lawsuits against the Administration which will be impossible to defend. The Courts will order the elections to continue as planned after the lawsuits prevail at all levels of the Federal Court system.

• After the Court rulings, Trump will declare martial law, call in the U.S. military to enforce the suspended election, and arrest judges who rule against his administration.  The United States becomes militarized. There will not be another presidential election as long as Donald Trump lives.

Sound far-fetched? You don’t think Trump would so overtly break the law? It is true, Trump has always been a master at avoiding responsibility when laws are broken. He works behind the scenes, pulls the levers, and if the crime is exposed, it’s likely that one of his underlings had long since been set up to take the fall. Trump fomented a rebellion on January 6, 2021 which resulted in violence and death, but carefully orchestrated his behavior to be sins of omission rather than sins of commission.  But look at all the Trump servants who have been indicted: Rudy Giuliani, John Eastman, Ken Chesebro, Boris Epshteyn, Jenna Ellis, Sidney Powell, Jeffrey Clark, and a whole bunch of Republican state electors. Peter Navarro is in jail. Michael Cohen spent three years in prison. Steve Bannon is about to enter prison. Trump’s “room where it happens” has been ruinous for its occupants. Except for Trump.

But this time would be different. This time, Trump would be virtually assured of going to prison if he did not lead an insurrection. Open rebellion against the United States would be his only option for not only remaining as President, but remaining a free man. If you support Trump, you have an obligation to imagine how his second term would end, specifically a term which he knows will be followed by revived prosecutions. Do you really think Donald Trump would  voluntarily give up the power of the Presidency when he knows prison time is in his future? I’m not asking you to come to the same conclusions. I’m just asking you to not be naïve about what this man is capable of given his past behavior patterns.

I don’t want to vote for Joe Biden. I have to vote for Joe Biden. 

• John J. Barton, CPA, ASA